Saudi Arabia, Russia, and six other OPEC+ members decided on Sunday to increase their oil production quotas by 206,000 barrels per day starting in April. This volume exceeds the 137,000 additional barrels anticipated by analysts before the weekend, as the war in Iran increases uncertainty about global supply.
The decision, made at a long-scheduled meeting of five OPEC members and three allied countries, is officially justified by "market balance." The statement does not explicitly mention the Iranian conflict, but comes amid heightened tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world's oil passes.
A limited signal in the face of supply risks
For many analysts, this increase is more of a political signal than a sufficient response to current risks. If the flows through the Strait of Hormuz were to be disrupted for an extended period, the impact on global supply could reach several million barrels per day, far exceeding the agreed-upon adjustment.
Even before the military escalation, Brent crude was trading above $72 a barrel, already reflecting a geopolitical risk premium. Some experts believe that in the event of a prolonged conflict and supply disruptions, prices could exceed $120.
OPEC+ has announced a new meeting for April 5. If necessary, countries with additional capacity, primarily Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, could consider further adjustments. However, several members of the group remain dependent on the smooth operation of Gulf shipping routes to export their crude oil, which limits their room for maneuver.
