As the United States launched targeted strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, global financial markets reacted with restrained nervousness, oscillating between caution and speculation. Oil prices jumped more than 2% in the first few hours of trading, while major Asian stock markets retreated, worried about the potential consequences of a renewed conflagration in the Middle East.
The strikes, which took place Saturday and targeted three Iranian nuclear sites, mark a new escalation in the ongoing war between Israel and Iran. While analysts are generally cautious, many are banking on a measured response from Tehran, believing that Iran cannot afford a direct confrontation that would jeopardize its own economic interests. Neil Newman of Atris Advisory in Japan summed it up: "The market thinks this is a one-off strike. We'll take the hit and get back to business."
But the central issue remains the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic passage through which approximately one-third of the world's oil passes. Closing this shipping route would immediately send prices soaring to unsustainable levels—up to $130 a barrel, according to some experts—with severe repercussions for already weakened Western economies. Senator Marco Rubio has also urged China to intervene diplomatically with Iran, emphasizing that Beijing relies heavily on this route for its hydrocarbon supplies.
Asian markets understandably faltered. Taiwan fell 1,4%, South Korea lost 0,2%, and Japan, while recording a limited decline, saw its defense-related stocks rise sharply. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and ShinMaywa, two pillars of the Japanese military industry, gained 0,8% and 1,5% respectively, a sign that the war industry continues to thrive amid global instability.
Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened, benefiting from its role as a safe haven, while the euro appreciated slightly. In China, stock markets remained bullish, with investors banking on domestic stability and Beijing's room to maneuver to distance itself from the conflict.
This latest episode demonstrates once again that "American peace" produces nothing but chaos and uncertainty. While the Washington administration plays with fire by multiplying unilateral strikes, Asian—and European—economies risk paying a high price for this headlong rush into war. The illusion of a surgical strike with no follow-up poorly masks geopolitical realities: in a multipolar world, each missile fired by the American Empire further weakens global peace.
