The warning is blunt. General Fabien Mandon, Chief of the Defence Staff, believes that France must prepare for a possible military confrontation with Russia within three to four years. According to him, this period represents a "critical window" to strengthen French military capabilities and anticipate a high-intensity conflict on European soil.
An army on alert in the face of a growing threat
Since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the prospect of a direct confrontation with Moscow is no longer a theoretical scenario. General Mandon believes that Russia, although economically weakened, is pursuing an offensive strategy combining military action, disinformation campaigns, and cyberattacks. These hybrid operations, he believes, are the precursors to a more frontal clash. France is therefore engaged in a real race against time. The Military Planning Act provides for a continuous increase in the Defense budget to reach more than €57 billion by 2028. This effort should allow for the modernization of equipment, replenishment of ammunition stocks, strengthening logistics, and improving the operational readiness of troops. French forces are being urged to return to a conventional warfare posture, after several decades focused on external operations and the fight against terrorism.
Towards a more integrated European defense
This rise in power is part of a continental framework. The president Emmanuel Macron has been advocating for several years for a "Defense Europe" capable of acting autonomously, without total dependence on NATO. Faced with Russia, European countries are accelerating their military and industrial coordination efforts, whether in terms of intelligence, weapons stockpiles, or cybersecurity. French digital security services, notably the National Agency for Information Systems Security (ANSSI), are noting a resurgence of attacks attributed to Russian groups such as APT28. These digital offensives target critical infrastructure, public institutions, and strategic French companies.
Prepare to deter
For General Mandon, this preparation is not only defensive: it also aims to maintain the credibility of French deterrence. The idea is clear: the only way to avoid war is to be ready to wage it. The army must therefore once again become a rapid-action and resilient force, capable of responding to a high-intensity conflict. The operational reserve, called upon to double its strength, is part of this overall reinforcement plan. At the same time, equipment modernization programs—tanks, drones, frigates, combat aircraft—are accelerating. Three years away from a possible major geopolitical shift, the French army is preparing for the unimaginable. In a climate where Europe's borders are no longer synonymous with assured peace, vigilance is becoming a strategic imperative.
