A new turning point in the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran: the administration of Donald Trump Iran has submitted a 15-point peace plan to Tehran, presented as a basis for resolving the crisis. The American proposal includes a one-month ceasefire, the opening of broader post-conflict talks, and demands concerning Iran's nuclear program and maritime security in the Gulf.
The project also includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway through which approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas flows pass. On this point, Iran indicated in a note addressed to the UN Security Council and the International Maritime Organization that ships deemed “non-hostile” They can once again use the strait, provided they coordinate with the Iranian authorities and do not participate in hostile actions against the Islamic Republic.
This opening, however, remains very partial. Tehran has not announced a complete return to normalcy in the Strait of Hormuz, but rather a conditional arrangement reserved for vessels it does not consider to be linked to the United States, Israel, or other actors acting against it. Reuters thus points out that the announced easing of restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz is more akin to a controlled traffic management measure than a complete lifting of the restrictions imposed in recent days.
On the diplomatic front, caution prevails. Donald Trump has stated that progress is being made, but the Iranian military command has rejected this interpretation, believing that Washington “negotiates with himself”In other words, the American plan does exist as a proposal, but it does not yet constitute an agreement accepted by both parties. Meanwhile, strikes and counter-strikes continue between Iran, Israel, and American forces in the region.
Oil prices are falling
Markets nevertheless welcomed the possibility of de-escalation. Oil prices fell by more than 5% in Asia on Wednesday, with Brent crude dropping to $98,28 a barrel and WTI to $87,68, as traders bet on a reduced risk of a prolonged supply disruption if a ceasefire were to materialize. Analysts surveyed by the agency, however, warned that a new major military incident could very quickly erase this decline.
