OPEC+ has agreed in principle to increase its oil production quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for the month of May, according to three sources close to the discussions, ahead of an official meeting scheduled for this Sunday. However, this increase is expected to remain largely theoretical, as major producers are unable to actually increase their supply due to disruptions related to the conflict involving Iran.
Since the end of February, the war has severely disrupted maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic passage for global oil trade. This situation has significantly reduced exports from several key OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq, which until now were the only ones with additional production capacity.
Furthermore, other members of the group, such as Russia, face structural obstacles. Western sanctions, as well as the damage inflicted on their infrastructure in the context of the conflict in Ukraine, limit their ability to increase production. In the Gulf, oil installations have also suffered significant damage following missile and drone attacks, which could require several months of repairs before a return to normal operations.
Although Iran has stated that passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains permitted for certain countries, such as Iraq, maritime data indicates that few ships are currently using this route due to the high risks. A tanker carrying Iraqi crude oil has nevertheless been reported in the area, but uncertainty remains regarding the resumption of large-scale shipping traffic.
This crisis has caused what is described as the most significant disruption to oil supply ever recorded, with an estimated loss of between 12 and 15 million barrels per day, representing up to 15% of global supply. In this context, oil prices have reached levels not seen in four years, flirting with $120 a barrel, and could exceed $150 if the situation persists, according to some forecasts.
The increase announced by OPEC+ would therefore have a limited impact in the short term, but it sends a signal of the group's willingness to increase production as soon as conditions allow, particularly if the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Several analysts nevertheless believe that this decision remains symbolic as long as logistical and security disruptions persist in the region.
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