The United States and Iran are reportedly close to an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most sensitive shipping lanes for oil and gas transport. The proposed compromise includes a 60-day extension of the ceasefire, during which shipping could resume in the strait.
Iran would agree to reopen the passage without tolls and remove the mines deployed in the area to allow commercial vessels to navigate freely. In exchange, the United States would lift its blockade of Iranian ports and grant certain exemptions to sanctions, notably to allow Tehran to sell its oil more freely again.
A strategic lock for the global economy
The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. Its closure or disruption has immediate consequences for energy markets. In 2024, approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day passed through it, representing nearly one-fifth of global oil and petroleum product consumption, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
The International Energy Agency also estimates that around 25% of global maritime oil trade will pass through Hormuz in 2025. Alternatives are limited: only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have pipelines capable of partially bypassing this passage.
Iran's nuclear program remains at the heart of the negotiations.
The draft agreement would not immediately resolve the nuclear issue. However, it would include Iranian commitments not to seek to acquire nuclear weapons, as well as the opening of discussions on a suspension of uranium enrichment and on the future of Tehran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
According to New York TimesThree senior Iranian officials claim that Tehran has accepted a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the fighting and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The agreement reportedly also includes the release of $25 billion in Iranian assets frozen abroad.
Trump urges caution
Despite these signs of openness, Donald Trump He tempered expectations. The American president stated that he had asked his representatives not to rush into negotiations. He also indicated that the American blockade would remain "fully in force" until an agreement is concluded, certified and signed.
Several points of disagreement remain, notably on sanctions, frozen Iranian assets, security guarantees demanded by Tehran and the place of the nuclear program in a future comprehensive agreement.
A gradual resumption, not an immediate one
Even with a swift agreement, a return to normalcy could take time; only 33 ships were recently able to transit the Strait with Tehran's permission, compared to approximately 140 per day before the conflict. The head of the Emirati oil company ADNOC estimated that full flows through Hormuz might not resume until the first or second quarter of 2027. At this stage, the announcement therefore marks a significant diplomatic step forward, but not yet a definitive settlement.
