Two and a half years before the election, the right wing has yet to choose its candidate for 2027, but it already sees an old temptation emerging: settling the question with the polls. In an opinion piece, Brice Teinturier, deputy managing director of Ipsos, argues for a primary to select the candidate, believing that competition based on voting intentions mainly creates a rivalry of image, not a clear direction. A primary, he contends, would give the winner a clear mandate, a decipherable course, and, above all, a legitimacy less fragile than that conferred by fluctuating numbers.
In his argument, the political scientist warns against the illusion of a permanent measure: a poll, he reminds us, remains a snapshot, sensitive to public profile, current events, and the available electoral options. In other words, today's popularity doesn't reveal what the country expects regarding immigration, authority, public spending, or France's place in the world. Teinturier emphasizes a point that many seem to forget: a change in government isn't won solely based on a candidate's profile; it's also built on a clearly defined political choice.
The trap of curves and the need for a straight line
His text also draws on Ipsos-BVA surveys that paint a bleak picture of public sentiment. According to the figures cited, 81% of French people express negative feelings such as "disappointment," "disgust," or "anger," compared to only 11% who express "interest," "hope," or "passion." The overall picture suggests a sense of stagnation, of wasted potential, of a country brooding while challenges pile up. In this context, the idea is simple: if distrust is widespread, a decisive mechanism is needed, one that presents clear choices and forces candidates to step out of their comfortable ambiguity.
The political crux remains: which primary, for whom, with what rules, and at what risk of public division? Between an open primary, an internal procedure, or a party-backed agreement, the right and center are walking a tightrope, especially since the realignment since 2017 has reshuffled the cards, with the center occupied by Macronism and the National Rally established as the dominant force on the far right. The primary has its promises—clarity and momentum—and its pitfalls—bruised egos and resentment in the aftermath… but by letting polls act as the arbiter, the right wing could find itself without any arbiter at all, when it needs to speak to the nation with one voice.
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