The Formula 1 season is about to reach a historic finale this Sunday with a three-way battle for the world title. Lando Norris (408 pts), Max Verstappen (396 pts), and Oscar Piastri (392 pts) arrive in Abu Dhabi separated by just a few points. Here are all the possible scenarios for crowning one of the three contenders, presented in a clear and detailed analysis.
Lando Norris: the favorite who controls his own destiny
By finishing top of the standings at the last Grand Prix, Lando Norris holds the easiest advantage to exploit: a podium finish is all he needs to clinch the world championship, regardless of his rivals' performances. If he finishes 1st, 2nd, or 3rd, the title is automatically his.
If Norris finishes 4th or 5th, his championship remains possible provided Max Verstappen doesn't win. A 6th or 7th place finish also keeps his chances alive, but he would then have to hope that neither Verstappen nor Piastri wins the race.
If Norris finishes 8th, the situation becomes complicated: Oscar Piastri must not win and Max Verstappen must not reach the podium. In the event of 9th, 10th place, or even outside the points, the Briton can still clinch the title, but only if Verstappen finishes outside the top three and if Piastri does not finish higher than 3rd.
The McLaren driver therefore approaches the final race as master of his own destiny: a solid result is enough, and even an average performance could still make him the new world champion.
Max Verstappen: champion only if everything falls into place
For Max Verstappen, the equation is much stricter. The three-time world champion needs to achieve an exceptional result while also benefiting from a mistake by Norris.
His clearest scenario is to win the Grand Prix. If Verstappen wins, he is crowned champion as long as Norris finishes 4th or worse.
If he doesn't secure the victory, his chances dwindle rapidly. A second-place finish would only guarantee him the championship if Oscar Piastri doesn't win the race and Norris finishes outside the top seven. A third-place finish still offers a title opportunity, but it requires Piastri not to win and Norris to finish no higher than ninth.
Verstappen must therefore aim for victory and hope for a lapse from the championship leader. Without a perfect result from him, his chances become extremely slim.
Oscar Piastri: a candidate still mathematically in the running
Oscar Piastri still has a chance to clinch his first world title, but it hinges on very specific conditions. The Australian absolutely must aim for victory to maximize his chances. If he wins, he will become champion if Lando Norris finishes no higher than 6th place.
However, there is an alternative: second place could be enough, but only if Max Verstappen doesn't finish on the podium and Norris scores only one point or finishes lower. Otherwise, Piastri wouldn't have enough points to take the championship lead.
The McLaren driver will therefore have to aim for a perfect performance while hoping for an unfavorable scenario for his two opponents.
The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix starts at 14:00 PM French time, to be followed live on Canal+.
