Lithuania fears a Russian false flag operation using Ukrainian drones.

Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas warned on Thursday that Moscow could strike critical infrastructure in the Baltic states using recovered Ukrainian drones, to discredit Kyiv and fracture NATO support.

The scenario described by Robertas Kaunas is precise: debris from Ukrainian drones shot down or crashed on Russian territory would be recovered, assembled into functional drones, and then used to strike critical infrastructure in the Baltic states. The stated objective would be to shift the blame onto Kyiv and erode Western military support for Ukraine.

“We are talking about a potential false flag operation, in which a fake Ukrainian drone could be used,” the minister said at a press briefing. “This is currently the most realistic scenario.” He clarified, however, that there is no indication that such an operation is imminent, even though Russia is actively developing various scenarios.

The proposed mechanism is based on documented reality: Ukraine regularly conducts long-range drone strikes against military and energy targets in Russia. Some of these drones are intercepted or crash, leaving debris in the hands of Russian forces. "[Russia] is capable of assembling them into a functional device," Kaunas stated.

Faced with this threat, Lithuania has strengthened security around several sites deemed sensitive: the Klaipėda liquefied natural gas terminal, the LitPol Link electricity interconnection with Poland near Alytus, an important transformer station in the same district and the Kruonis pumped hydroelectric power station.

The country is no stranger to aerial incidents. Earlier this year, Ukrainian drones crashed on its territory after being diverted from their flight paths by Russian electronic warfare systems. Last year, two Russian drones entered Lithuanian airspace from Belarus. A deliberate attack on infrastructure, however, would constitute an escalation of a completely different nature.

The minister placed this threat within the context of the Russian regime's internal fragility. According to him, Russian society is beginning to question "why there are fuel shortages, why warehouses are burning, and why Ukrainian drones are flying over Russia." To maintain its grip on power, "the Russian regime is seeking alternative ways to escalate tensions," he said. One of the desired goals would be to sow division within the Atlantic Alliance and reduce military aid to Kyiv. "But I can assure you that this will not happen," Robertas Kaunas concluded.