French President Emmanuel Macron is scheduled to deliver a major speech on France's nuclear doctrine on Monday from the highly secure Île Longue naval base near Brest, home to France's four nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines. This address comes amid serious questions in Europe about the reliability of the American nuclear umbrella, and at a time of recurring tensions in transatlantic relations with the president. Donald Trump.
Since the 1950s, European security has largely relied on American nuclear deterrence. But the war in Ukraine, repeated nuclear threats from Moscow, and certain statements from Washington have rekindled doubts. Several European leaders are now questioning the United States' true willingness to risk its own cities to defend European allies in the event of a major conflict.
In this context, France, the only nuclear power within the European Union, finds itself at the center of attention. Updating its deterrence doctrine could constitute one of the most strategic decisions of Macron's second term, fourteen months before the 2027 presidential election.
The basis chosen for the speech was not insignificant: French submarines can each carry 16 M51 intercontinental ballistic missiles, equipped with multiple nuclear warheads. In 2020, Emmanuel Macron had indicated that France had fewer than 300 warheads, a level deemed sufficient to inflict "absolutely unacceptable damage" on any state threatening its "vital interests".
Specialists will scrutinize any sign of change: a more explicit commitment to the protection of European allies, or even a reflection on the future size of the arsenal.
Back in 2020, Emmanuel Macron had already stated that France's "vital interests" had a "European dimension." Since then, some partners have responded to his offer of dialogue on French deterrence, and even to participate in nuclear exercises.
In Germany, Chancellor Friedrich Merz mentioned preliminary discussions with Paris, even going so far as to consider the possibility that German aircraft could one day transport French nuclear weapons. In the Nordic countries, political leaders are calling for stronger guarantees from Paris, arguing that American reliability can no longer be taken for granted.
Many analysts believe that Europeans are now seeking a strategic "second life insurance policy" in the face of a US administration deemed more unpredictable. The recent revision of Russian doctrine, the expansion of Chinese and North Korean arsenals, and the debates in the United States regarding potential nuclear tests are reinforcing this climate of uncertainty.
Nuclear doctrine has traditionally relied on calculated ambiguity, designed to sow doubt among potential adversaries. Any changes announced by Emmanuel Macron will therefore be carefully considered by both European partners and rival powers.
In a strategic environment deemed increasingly unstable, the speech at Île Longue should thus clarify the place of French deterrence in the security of the continent, at a time when the global nuclear balance seems to be entering a new phase of recomposition.
