Antonio Guterres in Cyprus to try to revive a stalled peace process

UN Secretary-General António Guterres is visiting Cyprus from July 27 to 29, the first visit by a UN chief to the island in sixteen years. The objective: to assess whether the political conditions allow for a resumption of negotiations on the reunification of the island, divided since the 1974 Turkish invasion.

This Monday marks the 52nd anniversary of the Turkish invasion of Cyprus, which led to the partition of the island between the Republic of Cyprus in the south and the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, recognized by no state except Turkey. Five decades later, the Cyprus issue remains one of the world's longest-standing frozen conflicts.

Guterres' visit follows up on a broader informal meeting held in Geneva last March. Since then, his personal envoy, Maria Angela Holguin, has held numerous consultations in Cyprus, Greece, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and Brussels to gauge the views of the capitals concerned. On the island, Guterres will meet separately with Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides and Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhurman, before a tripartite meeting scheduled for July 29 at the UN Special Representative's residence in the buffer zone.

According to diplomatic sources, the Secretary-General's immediate objective is not to present a settlement plan. The most likely outcome of these meetings would be the announcement of a new, broader, informal meeting, bringing together the two Cypriot communities as well as Greece, Turkey, and the United Kingdom—the three guarantor powers established by the 1960 treaties—and the UN. This meeting could take place in late August or early September. This time, the international organization would seek to establish a more structured process, with a defined sequence of steps and a precise timetable.

The British newspaper The Independent reported on July 12 that Holguin was working on a new settlement framework. This framework would maintain the model of a bi-zonal and bi-communal federation, in accordance with Security Council resolutions, while granting significantly greater autonomy to the two constituent states and reducing the powers of the federal government. In return, the Turkish Cypriot side would have to accept territorial adjustments, including the return of the walled city of Varosha and the town of Morphou. The text also mentions new security arrangements allowing for the continued presence of Greek and Turkish troops on the island, under NATO command. The UN has neither confirmed nor denied this information. President Christodoulides stated that "not everything reported by the newspaper is accurate."

Several factors explain this renewed diplomatic activity. The election of Tufan Erhurman as head of the Turkish Cypriot community last October changed the game: unlike his predecessor Ersin Tatar, a proponent of a two-state solution, Erhurman has stated his willingness to resume negotiations on the basis of a bi-zonal and bi-communal federation. This change does not reflect an evolution in Ankara's official position, nor does it resolve the persistent disagreements over security guarantees, political equality, or the Turkish military presence. Nevertheless, it opens a window that the UN intends to explore.

The European Union is becoming more involved in this issue. On July 8, European Council President António Costa and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen discussed the UN initiative with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Ankara, urging him to seize this opportunity. A few days later, the Commission appointed Executive Vice-President Raffaele Fitto as its Special Representative on the Cyprus issue. For Brussels, progress on this matter could facilitate several areas of cooperation with Ankara, whose relations remain stalled, particularly due to the lack of a settlement in Cyprus.

Previous UN attempts have failed. In 2004, the Annan plan was approved by a majority of Turkish Cypriots but rejected by 75,8% of Greek Cypriots in simultaneous referendums. In 2010, Ban Ki-moon attempted to revive negotiations between Demetris Christofias and Mehmet Ali Talat, two leaders in favor of a federation, but momentum stalled after Talat's electoral defeat to Dervis Eroglu.