Météo-France announced on Monday the launch of high-resolution climate projections specifically designed for French overseas territories, covering the years 2030, 2050, and 2100. These data, available on the DRIAS portal, now include the French West Indies, joining Réunion, Mayotte, French Guiana, and New Caledonia, which already have their own indicators. Those for French Polynesia are expected by the end of March. This project, launched in 2024 and involving forty people for eighteen months, is described as a "catch-up operation" by Sophie Martinoni-Lapierre, director of climatology at Météo-France, for territories "long overlooked in simulation exercises."
The projected figures are striking. In Mayotte, the number of days exceeding 32°C could reach approximately 200 per year by 2100, compared to around thirty currently. In French Guiana, hot nights could increase from fewer than ten per year to around 230. In Guadeloupe, days with temperatures of 33°C or higher, currently rare, would reach 85 to 90 per year. These changes are part of a projected warming of +2,7°C for the French Antilles by 2100 compared to the pre-industrial era, a level lower than that anticipated for mainland France, but whose effects are no less severe.
Areas exposed despite less warming
“Just because the overseas territories experience a lower level of warming doesn’t mean the situation is more favorable,” emphasizes Agathe Drouin, head of the Studies and Modeling department at Météo-France. The reference framework used is the Reference Warming Trajectory for Adaptation to Climate Change, which prepares mainland France for +4°C by 2100, with variations depending on the overseas territories, from +2,3°C in French Polynesia to +3,5°C in French Guiana.
These projections are intended to inform local climate change adaptation policies. The initial results "should alert us," insisted Sophie Martinoni-Lapierre, emphasizing that their production required "months and months of calculations" on Météo-France's supercomputers.
