Good news, on paper: the world would be less certain to be heading towards warming above 5°C by 2100. According to a study led by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), a group of about forty scientists now considers this scenario "unlikely", by updating climate projections with recent knowledge on climate response and emissions trajectories.
In concrete terms, even under the most pessimistic scenario—a sharp increase in greenhouse gas emissions—the global temperature would not reach 4°C by the end of the century. For Robert Vautard, climatologist and co-chair of the IPCC, this is already a sign: public policies "are having an effect." "Climate policies are having an effect, unfortunately not yet of reducing emissions, but of bending them," he explained, noting that the curve, even if it doesn't reverse, is at least showing some signs of strain.
Below 5°C, but still too warm to remain calm.
However, the study primarily highlights scenarios deemed more plausible based on warming slightly below 3°C by 2100. We are far from a stable world. Robert Vautard speaks of a "major" impact on human societies: more frequent heat waves, more severe floods, and longer droughts. With each additional step, the cost increases, and not just in degrees.
The WCRP reiterates this point unequivocally: seeing the 5°C scenario recede does not diminish the magnitude of the risks associated with the current trajectory. The IPCC assessments remain our compass; 1,5°C demands a rapid reduction in emissions, and every fraction of a degree increases the risk of extremes. In short, we may be avoiding the worst-case scenario, but the outlook remains precarious, with one crucial question looming: how quickly will we make decisions before the climate dictates its own?
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