Iceland votes on resuming accession negotiations with the European Union

Icelanders went to the polls on Saturday to decide whether they want to revive EU accession talks, which have been suspended since 2013. The vote is expected to be extremely close, with the latest poll giving the No side 51,6%.

Thirteen years after putting its candidacy on hold, Iceland could reopen the door to the European Union. Polling stations were open from 9 a.m. to 22 p.m. (GMT) on Saturday, and the results are expected overnight. More than one in five voters had already cast their ballots early before election day, according to Icelandic public broadcaster RúV.

The question posed to the country's roughly 400,000 inhabitants is direct: "Should Iceland resume accession negotiations with the European Union?" A positive vote would not constitute a final decision on membership. It would simply pave the way for an accession agreement, which would then have to be approved by a second referendum, by Parliament, and would require a constitutional amendment, not to mention ratification by the 27 EU member states.

Iceland is already a member of the European Economic Area, giving it access to the single market and the Schengen Area. Joining the EU would, however, integrate it into the customs union and, eventually, the eurozone. When Reykjavik suspended negotiations in 2013, 27 of the 35 discussion chapters had already been opened and 11 provisionally concluded. European Commission officials estimated that an agreement could be finalized within one to two years.

Fishing remains the crux of the matter. The fishing and marine industries account for nearly 40% of Icelandic exports, and the "No" campaign fears losing control of national waters to the EU's Common Fisheries Policy. Brussels has suggested that a partial exemption is possible, but this obstacle is considered potentially insurmountable. Icelanders remember the "Cod Wars" won against the United Kingdom in the 1970s, and maritime sovereignty dominated the debates far more than geopolitical issues.

Prime Minister Kristrun Frostadottir, who led the Yes campaign in a televised debate, argued that joining the EU would be "one of the greatest risk-reduction measures we can take." She clarified, however, that a positive vote did not automatically mean Iceland would join the Union. Conversely, Gudrun Hafsteindottir, leader of the Independence Party and head of the No campaign, framed the vote as a choice regarding the transfer of "decision-making power" to Brussels over fishing, agriculture, and natural resources.

Iceland is among the most prosperous nations in Europe, with the fifth-highest GDP per capita in the world. Many attribute this wealth to its independence, according to Eirikur Bergmann, a professor of political science at Bifrost University. However, the country suffers from a high interest rate of 8% and rising inflation of 5,6%. Those in favor of remaining in the EU argue that European integration would help lower these figures.

While geopolitics accelerated the government's decision to revive the debate on the EU, particularly in light of Russian naval maneuvers and Donald Trump's statements on Greenland, these security issues ultimately had little impact on the campaign. "It's less prominent in the debate than many would have thought," acknowledges Hallgrimur Oddsson, director of the think tank European Currents.