US GDP grew 1,5% between April and June, compared with 2,1% in the previous quarter, due to a growing trade deficit and rising fuel prices linked to tensions with Iran.
The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis released its figures for the second quarter of 2026 on Thursday: U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1,5%, a significant decline from the 2,1% recorded in the first quarter. Two main factors contributed to this result: a widening trade deficit and rising energy prices, fueled by tensions between Washington and Tehran.
Household spending rose 3,2% during the period, driven by both generous tax refunds under Donald Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" and forced fuel expenditures. The average price of a gallon of gasoline reached $4,09 at the end of July, compared to $3,84 a month earlier and just $2,98 on February 28, the date of the first US-Israeli strikes against Iran, according to the American Automobile Association.
The surge in investment in artificial intelligence is another driver of economic activity, but it too is fueling trade deficits due to the sector's heavy reliance on imports. "The economy continues to rely on technology investment," said Rachel Ziemba, a research associate at the Center for a New American Security. Data centers are driving growth while raising questions about the sustainability of the model, particularly regarding circular finance that could artificially prop up the sector. Nvidia is also reportedly in talks to invest $250 million in OpenAI, according to reports published Monday.
On the inflation front, the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) index, the Federal Reserve's preferred benchmark, rose 3,7% year-over-year in June, after a 4,1% jump in May. This slight decline is explained by a brief easing of fuel prices last month, before they rebounded. "This report is a snapshot of an economy under a ceasefire that no longer exists. Even with last month's temporary respite in inflation, prices remain high and families are saving less to try to make ends meet," said Alex Jacquez, a former member of the National Economic Council under Joe Biden.
The Fed kept its benchmark interest rates in the 3,5-3,75 range on Wednesday, citing persistently high inflation. Nevertheless, US markets rose during the session, boosted by Microsoft's earnings: the Nasdaq gained 2,6%, the S&P 500 1,2%, and the Dow Jones 0,5%. Gold, a safe haven during times of uncertainty, climbed 1,9% to $4,108.30 an ounce.
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