The 2025 finance bill, the centerpiece of the Barnier government, begins its examination in the Senate this Monday. Rejected in the National Assembly in its revised version, the text returns to the senators in its initial version, the one defended by the executive. This step promises to be crucial for Prime Minister Michel Barnier, who is counting on the support of the senatorial majority to carry his budget through.
Unlike the National Assembly, which is marked by the absence of a clear majority, the Senate has a solid coalition. The 245 senators from the right (LR) and the centre (Union centriste, RDSE) form a "common base" around the government. This unprecedented support allows the Senate to play a strategic role, particularly in adjusting certain controversial measures. The Prime Minister, aware of this dynamic, has increased consultations with the main players in the upper house, including Gérard Larcher, President of the Senate, and Jean-François Husson, General Budget Rapporteur.
Key measures under debate
The bill aims to achieve savings of 60 billion euros and reduce the deficit to 5% of GDP by 2025. Among the proposed measures:
While these measures are generally supported, the Senate is preparing to modify certain aspects of them. The senators thus reject the planned increase in the electricity tax, due to its impact on purchasing power, but plan to compensate for this refusal by an increase in the gas tax.
Local authorities at the heart of discussions
The treatment of local authorities remains a major sticking point. The government is planning an effort of 5 billion euros, divided between a reduction in the VAT Compensation Fund (FCTVA) and a levy on the revenues of large communities. Gérard Larcher proposes to limit this effort to 2 billion euros, a position supported by the senatorial majority. This gesture aims to protect the most fragile communities, while preserving the budgetary balance.
The passage through the Senate marks an intermediate phase before a possible joint committee (CMP) between the two chambers. If a compromise is found, the text will return to the National Assembly, where the government plans to use Article 49.3 to have its budget adopted. This choice, although strategic, opens the door to a motion of censure, the outcome of which could prove perilous for Michel Barnier.
Towards a political rebalancing?
With this finance bill, the Senate finds itself for the first time in a position of strength to influence the major budgetary guidelines. The senators, attached to their independence, intend to take advantage of this to impose their "markers", while displaying loyal support for the government. "The Senate must take its responsibilities. For the first time, it is the one that is able to make the budget", underlines François Patriat, leader of the Macronist senators.
The formal vote scheduled for December 12 will be a first indication of the Senate's ability to influence the bill. But the final outcome, expected after the CMP, will determine whether this new Senate majority can actually reshape the budget on its terms.
