This Tuesday, December 3, marks a crucial day in the National Assembly, as the opposition prepares to examine the motions of censure filed against Michel Barnier's government. The use of Article 49.3 to impose the 2025 Social Security budget has crystallized tensions, temporarily uniting the left and the National Rally in their opposition.
The Conference of Presidents to organize the vote
This morning, the Conference of Presidents, which brings together the leaders of the parliamentary groups, must validate the motions of censure and determine their order of priority. According to parliamentary rules, the motion that has obtained the most support will be examined first. At this stage, it is the motion of the left, supported by La France Insoumise, which is in the lead, with the assurance of the support of the National Rally.
Jordan Bardella, president of the RN, confirmed that his group would vote for this motion, adding decisive weight. "We cannot support a government that disregards democratic debate by imposing its budget by force," did he declare.
Once validated, the motions will be debated in plenary session, probably as early as Wednesday, December 4, with a crucial vote planned for the afternoon.
What is the outcome for the government?
The choice of 49.3 means that the text annexed to the minutes of the session is no longer amendable. For an expert on parliamentary life quoted in Le Parisien : "By triggering Article 49.3, the government no longer has the possibility of seeking new political compromises." This rigidity reinforces the anger of the opposition, who denounce the government's use of force.
With the votes of the left and the RN, the motion of censure could reach the absolute majority necessary to overthrow the government. If it is adopted, Michel Barnier and his team will have to resign, plunging the executive into a major political crisis.
The rest will depend on the president's decision. Emmanuel Macron, which could appoint a new Prime Minister or even consider dissolving the National Assembly. Until then, Tuesday will be crucial in organizing debates and sealing alliances before Wednesday's vote.
