On Wednesday, TUI sent a clear signal to the markets: the world's leading tourism group is not proceeding blindly when geopolitics escalate. The Hanover-based group lowered its profitability forecast for the 2025-2026 fiscal year, citing the war in Iran which, in its words, is creating "increased caution" among customers.
In concrete terms, TUI says it aims for a stable operating result by the end of September and is temporarily suspending its revenue forecasts, pending a "stabilization of the situation." The conflict in the Middle East and the uncertainty surrounding its duration "continue to limit short-term visibility," the company explains, with this consequence that is very easy for the reader to understand: when vacationers hesitate, bookings are made later, trade-offs multiply, and margins become more difficult to maintain.
On the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, the reaction was swift: the share price fell by 2,42% by mid-session. TUI is now announcing an expected adjusted EBIT of between 1,1 and 1,4 billion euros, compared to 1,41 billion euros last year, a decline that sums up the current mood: tourism has recovered since Covid, yes, but it only takes one major crisis for the situation to deteriorate again.
When the strait closes, profitability tightens.
The group also recalls a very concrete episode of this war: at the beginning of the conflict in late February, two TUI cruise ships, one in Abu Dhabi and the other in Doha, were stranded after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Here, we're no longer dealing with economic theory, but with raw logistics, with disrupted itineraries, delayed rotations, and costs that escalate, often faster than the prices that can be charged to the end customer.
Following this, TUI reports having repatriated approximately 10.000 customers in March, including 5.000 Europeans, as well as around 1.500 crew members. The two ships finally left the Persian Gulf on April 19 and are scheduled to resume their Mediterranean itineraries from mid-May, a welcome respite for the operator, even if the return to a normal schedule is not enough to offset the additional costs or the booking anxiety.
The somewhat ungrateful reality remains: tourism thrives on desire, but it also depends on a sense of security that can shatter overnight. By suspending its revenue forecasts and narrowing its profitability range, TUI acknowledges that the season will be decided as much on the beaches as on news screens, with customers ready to travel, but rarely willing to go at any price or to any destination.
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