The prediction market platform Polymarket has faced intense criticism since the start of the Iran-Iraq War. This site allows users to bet money on the probability of future events, whether political, economic, or geopolitical. Since the first US-Israeli strikes against Iran in late February, several bets related to the conflict have attracted considerable sums, including $529 million wagered on the possibility of a US attack on Iran.
Polymarket operates on the principle of buying "shares" associated with an event. If the event occurs, the share is worth $1; otherwise, it is worthless. Prices fluctuate according to supply and demand, allowing the platform to display a real-time estimate of the probability of an event, such as a ceasefire, the fall of a regime, or the evolution of a conflict.
Suspicions of insider trading and ethical controversy
The platform is currently under scrutiny following the discovery of significant profits made by certain accounts just before the strikes against Iran. A blockchain analytics firm claims that several wallets earned approximately $1,2 million by betting on the timing of the attacks. These gains fuel suspicions that some users may have had access to sensitive or confidential information.
The controversy was further fueled by the presence of bets deemed shocking, particularly those concerning the possibility of a nuclear detonation before a certain date, which were ultimately removed following a wave of outrage. Several American political leaders are now calling for stricter regulation of these prediction markets, which are accused of turning geopolitical crises into objects of speculation.
In France, Polymarket is banned, with the National Gaming Authority (ANJ) considering the platform to offer online gambling without a license. Despite this official block, some internet users continue to access it via technical means such as VPNs, reigniting the debate on the regulation of these new markets linked to current global events.
