For the French dairy industry, exports remain both a blessing and a source of anxiety. Nearly 40% of the milk collected in France ends up being processed into products shipped abroad, a vital balance for the sector's economy. But the summer's trade turbulence has rekindled concerns.
Weakened strategic markets
In the United States, the agreement concluded at the end of July between Ursula von der Leyen and Donald Trump has increased customs duties on European dairy products, now set at a minimum of 15%. The country represents only 4% of French exports in the sector, but the symbolic impact is significant: manufacturers are scrutinizing consumer reaction and the competitiveness of French cheeses in an already competitive market. China, which accounts for 7% of French exports, is maintaining the pressure. Beijing has extended its anti-subsidy investigation into European dairy products until February 2026. This uncertainty weighs on a crucial market, at a time when Asian demand continues to grow. Algeria, another key partner, also remains subject to diplomatic and commercial uncertainties.
A promising horizon despite everything
Despite these shocks, export ambitions remain intact. Projections predict a strong increase in global dairy consumption, particularly in Africa and Asia, regions where demand for powdered milk, butter, and cheese continues to grow. As Jean-Marc Chaumet, economics director of the National Dairy Interprofessional Center (CNIEL), points out, "international relations weigh on trade," but they are not enough to undermine the industry's desire to consolidate its market share. The challenge for France will be to juggle geopolitical volatility with the promise of rapidly expanding global demand.
