The unemployment insurance system is expected to post a deficit of €2,1 billion in 2026, according to financial forecasts published Tuesday by Unédic. These projections are based on an assumed growth rate of 1% and zero net job creation. Without the €4,1 billion levy imposed by the government on its revenue, the balance would have been a positive €2 billion. The situation is further complicated by the start of repayments on the debt accumulated during the health crisis.
The joint body emphasizes that the state's levies "mechanically degrade" its financial situation and that debt reduction has been at a standstill since 2023. Its president, Patricia Ferrand, deemed it "essential" that these levies cease, in a context she describes as "darkened economic prospects".
A return to surpluses expected as early as 2027
From 2027 onwards, Unédic anticipates a recovery in its accounts, with an estimated surplus of €2,8 billion, then €4,8 billion in 2028. These figures assume no new government levies and would allow the system to return to its debt reduction trajectory. Despite the deteriorating labor market, the number of unemployed receiving benefits would remain stable, at around 2,6 million in 2026 and 2027, before falling to 2,5 million in 2028, as a result of the reforms implemented since 2021.
These forecasts do not take into account the agreement reached last week between employers' and trade union organizations on stricter compensation rules for employees who have benefited from a negotiated termination agreement. The text still needs to be formally signed and then examined by Parliament. According to estimates, it would generate savings of €20 million in the first year of implementation, probably in 2027, eventually reaching €940 million per year.
