Presidential election 2027: Édouard Philippe ahead of Jordan Bardella in the second round, according to a poll

The balance tips in Édouard Philippe's favor. According to an Odoxa-Mascaret poll published Tuesday, the former Prime Minister (Horizons) would win a second round of the 2027 presidential election against Jordan Bardella, with 52% of voting intentions to Bardella's 48%. A narrow margin, almost neck and neck, but enough to reverse the signal sent in November by the same polling institute, which at the time predicted a victory for the National Rally leader (53% to 47%). A snapshot, not a destiny, but in politics, snapshots often become posters.

A tight second round, a worrying first round. Because the story doesn't end with the final duel. In the first round, Jordan Bardella would remain in the lead in all the scenarios tested, with between 34% and 38% of voting intentions, and a projected 13-point advantage over Édouard Philippe. Two scenarios are on the table: a coalition of the center and moderate right around Philippe, and a split right-wing coalition led by Bruno Retailleau. In this second case, Retailleau would garner 8% compared to 21% for Philippe, while Jean-Luc Mélenchon would receive 12% and Raphaël Glucksmann 10%.

A second round that is tightening, a first round that is causing concern

In the event of a single candidate for the right and center, Édouard Philippe would climb to 25%, while Jordan Bardella would reach 38%, with Mélenchon at 13% and Glucksmann at 10%. The poll also highlights that Philippe garners the most support among right-wing and center sympathizers, ahead of Gabriel Attal and Gérald Darmanin, proof that the former Prime Minister remains, for many, a "reassuring" option in a tense political landscape. One stark reality remains: today, the momentum from the first round continues to press on like a steamroller, even if the second round is proving more complicated.

The survey was conducted online among 1.299 people, including 1.206 registered voters, with a stated margin of error of between 1,5 and 3,5 points. Another poll, published on Saturday, points in the same direction: it also predicted Édouard Philippe would win against Jordan Bardella, and even against... Marine Le PenIn other words, at this stage, the game is played as much on postponements and the ability to aggregate a camp as on the brute force of the first round, and the campaign, when it really begins, could transform these precarious balances into lasting fault lines.