The coalition led by the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi Modi is expected to win the elections comfortably in the strategic state of Bihar, according to initial results released Friday. This anticipated victory would provide Modi with a political boost after his setback in the 2024 national elections, where he lost his parliamentary majority.
Bihar, India's third most populous state with nearly 130 million inhabitants, occupies a central place in the country's political life. It sends one of the largest contingents of members of Parliament and serves as a crucial barometer of public opinion in Hindi-speaking regions, which are often decisive in national elections.
According to the Indian Election Commission, Modi's coalition, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), is leading in more than 170 constituencies and could easily surpass the 122-seat majority threshold. NDTV goes further, claiming the NDA is dominating in 191 constituencies, which would represent a gain of approximately 69 seats compared to the previous election. On X, Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) hailed a "clear mandate" and a popular demand for "development" and "good governance."
This victory would mark a turning point for Modi, who had to rely on his allies to remain in power after losing his majority last year. Since then, the BJP has been gradually regaining ground by winning several regional elections, and Bihar appears to be a confirmation of this political recovery.
Analysts partly attribute this success to the massive transfer of 75 billion rupees (approximately $853 million) paid out in September to millions of women in Bihar as part of an employment program. Over the past decade, female voter turnout has increased dramatically across India, altering traditional electoral dynamics. A poll by the VoteVibe agency shows that Modi's coalition would have garnered 48,5% of the female vote, more than ten points ahead of the opposition bloc.
The upcoming elections in key states like Assam, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu will be crucial in gauging the BJP's ability to expand its influence. Currently, only Assam is governed by the party at the regional level. However, the outcome in Bihar could offer Modi's camp a moral and strategic advantage in the political battles ahead.
