Fewer children, what will school be like tomorrow? The projections are worrying.

The French education system is expected to experience a massive decline in student numbers over the next ten years. According to projections from the Ministry of National Education, nearly 1,7 million students could disappear from primary, middle, and high schools by 2035, representing a decrease of more than 14% compared to 2025.

This trend, linked in particular to the sustained decline in the birth rate, will affect the entire country, with disparities between regions. Primary education will be the most affected, with more than 900,000 fewer students, compared to approximately 740,000 fewer in secondary education.

A reorganization of the school system in question

In response to this trend, the ministry is highlighting the need to adapt educational offerings in the long term. Consolidation of schools could be considered, particularly in rural areas, while urban areas will need to rethink their school networks.

Some school districts are expected to be particularly hard hit, such as Paris where the decline in student numbers could reach 30% in ten years. Other territories, like French Guiana or Mayotte, could, on the other hand, experience a slight increase.

Concerns about the consequences for the school

These prospects have raised concerns among teachers' unions, who fear that this decrease will be used to justify job cuts. They argue instead that this trend should be used to reduce class sizes and improve learning conditions.

The question of teacher renewal also remains, with several hundred thousand retirements expected by the end of the decade, in a context already marked by recruitment tensions.