INSEE has revised its growth forecast downwards and expects inflation to rise above 2%.

On Tuesday, March 24, INSEE (the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies) took a look at the outlook and was not pleased with what it saw. The war in the Middle East and what the institute calls "global disorder" risk impacting the French economy, especially through the simplest, and also the most brutal, channel: energy.

When hydrocarbon prices skyrocket, everything follows suit: production costs, transportation, and then the price tag on the shelf. And as the reader knows, there's no point beating around the bush; you always end up paying for it at the pump or the checkout.

Oil, that old arbiter

On the economic front, the national statistics institute has slightly lowered its forecasts for the beginning of 2026. GDP is now expected to rise by 0,2% in both the first and second quarters, compared to the previous forecast of 0,3% for each quarter. INSEE believes the economy will "hold up in the first half of the year" but will remain "fragile" due to the international context; in other words, growth that is barely holding on, dependent on negative news from elsewhere.

The real warning sign is inflation. After 0,9% year-on-year in February, INSEE anticipates a "sharp rebound" and a rise above "2% during the spring," with oil prices expected to remain around $100 until June. By mid-2026, the "carry-over growth" is projected at 0,9%, compared to 1% in the previous estimate—a figure that tells a simple story: the country is moving forward, but at a snail's pace, while prices are starting to climb again. The summer will likely reveal whether this resurgence is a one-off or becomes a permanent feature of the economic landscape.