This is a figure that hasn't gone unnoticed in Berlin or Frankfurt. The Federal Statistical Office confirmed year-on-year inflation of 2,8% in March, calculated according to the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), after 2,0% in February. The eurozone's largest economy is therefore moving further away from the 2% target set by the European Central Bank, and this isn't just a matter of decimal places: when Germany sneezes, European inflation listens, and so do the markets.
The return of monthly increases, a small but significant signal
Another detail, more subtle but often more telling for the reader's daily life: over the course of a month, prices climbed 1,2% in March, compared to 0,4% in February. This nervous monthly pace serves as a reminder that disinflation is not a straight line, but rather a bumpy road where energy, food, or services can unexpectedly reignite the economy. For the ECB, already forced to balance supporting economic activity with price caution, this type of dynamic complicates the timeline, and Germany once again becomes the barometer everyone is watching closely for the rest of spring.
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