French debt: slight decline at the end of 2025 to 115,6%, the wall remains.

On paper, this is good news. At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, French public debt, as defined by the Maastricht criteria, stood at €3,460.5 billion, down €23,6 billion over three months, according to INSEE. As a percentage of national wealth, it also declined: 115,6% of GDP, after 117,2% in the third quarter. A step backward, then, but on a slope that remains very steep.

Another key figure, this one more politically charged: the public deficit is projected to reach 5,1% of GDP in 2025, slightly less than the anticipated 5,4%. The balance improved by 0,7 percentage points year-on-year. INSEE points to revenues that are "accelerating due to tax increases," which mechanically helps to lower the debt ratio. The air is more breathable, but not necessarily healthier.

An improvement resulting from taxes, not from a weight-loss program

Because the trajectory of the debt tells a long story: acceleration after 2008, a runaway increase during the "whatever it takes" era, then an energy and inflationary shock. At the heart of the problem is a structural deficit that clings to public finances and, since rising interest rates, interest payments have become even heavier. When money costs money again, each billion borrowed weighs more heavily on the budget, and the reader understands: the room for maneuver shrinks.

The elephant in the room remains, the one Brussels never fails to point out: the European threshold of 60% of GDP, which is far behind us. The government says it aims for a return to a deficit below 3% "within a few years," while the Court of Auditors, the High Council of Public Finances, and the Bank of France regularly reiterate the issue of sustainability and the sensitivity to financing costs. The decline at the end of 2025 looks like a lull, but it remains to be seen whether it will be followed by another surge in budgetary spending.