Surprise growth in the UK, but the war in Iran already threatens to derail everything.

The British economy grew more strongly than expected in February, revealing a more robust position than anticipated before the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq War. However, this positive momentum could quickly be undermined by a new energy shock, which could weaken the country's resilience.

According to data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0,5% in February compared to the previous month. This is the strongest increase recorded since January 2024, far exceeding the expectations of economists polled by Reuters, who had forecast growth of only 0,2%.

These figures suggest that the British economy started the year in slightly better shape than expected. This performance could offer some relief to Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves, as the government seeks to support activity amid an uncertain global economic environment.

But this optimism is tempered by the potential consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. Economists point out that the UK remains particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in energy prices due to its reliance on imports. A sustained rise in energy costs could reignite inflation, which is already higher than in other comparable major economies.

Some analysts believe that the recent shock to energy prices may have already halted this growth momentum. The risk of another period of persistent inflation now looms over the British economy, which would complicate the task of monetary and fiscal authorities.

In this context, the strong performance in the first quarter could also raise questions about possible future adjustments to the data. However, the ONS sought to reassure the public, affirming its confidence in the quality and reliability of the published figures, despite the uncertainties surrounding the short-term economic outlook.