The war in Iran is expected to lead to a rise in consumer prices in the coming months, estimated at between 4 and 5%, according to the consumer association UFC Que Choisir. This increase, which is expected to be gradual, is linked to the surge in energy and raw material costs caused by geopolitical tensions in the region.
Pricing mechanisms in large retail chains, governed by annual agreements, could be adjusted through revision clauses. In the event of a significant increase in costs, manufacturers and distributors are indeed led to renegotiate, which is then reflected in shelf prices.
The effects vary depending on the product.
The first price increases are expected to affect fast-moving products, particularly fresh foods such as dairy products and yogurt. Other sectors could be affected later, especially hygiene and beauty products, which are heavily reliant on petroleum derivatives.
The consumer association believes that the increase will be less than that observed after the start of the war in Ukraine. In this context, the rise in unavoidable expenses, particularly related to fuel and energy, could lead households to adjust their consumption by prioritizing essential items.
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