The Trump administration is working on a plan aimed at redrawing the balance of power in the Middle East, increasing pressure on Tehran and expanding normalization of relations with Israel. The project, still in its early stages, could shape American policy in the region until the end of the presidential term.
Three main axes emerge from ongoing discussions in Washington, according to two American officials and two other sources familiar with the matter. The first is to strengthen what American officials call the “regional convergence” among U.S. allies to deter and contain Iran. The second aims to close the repercussions of the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, against Israel and the ensuing war. The third seeks to expand the Abraham Accords while reviving normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
The Iranian aspect would not constitute a radical break from previous administrations. Since the 1979 revolution, Washington has sought to contain Tehran’s influence by consolidating its alliances with Gulf states. What would change is the ambition to formalize these efforts within a more structured framework, with enhanced coordination on defense and security among regional allies.
Normalization between Riyadh and Tel Aviv remains at a standstill. Saudi Arabia conditions any rapprochement on concrete progress toward a Gaza settlement and the creation of a Palestinian state, a requirement that current negotiations have not met. The Abraham Accords, signed in 2020 during Trump’s first term with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, serve as a model for this expansion.
On the Gaza front, the plan would consider moving to a next phase including the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, the disarmament of Hamas, and the establishment of a transitional administration. Two other issues are linked to this: a security agreement between Israel and Syria, in the context of the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime at the end of 2024, and the implementation of an agreement with Lebanon aimed at limiting Hezbollah’s military capabilities, in accordance with the 2024 ceasefire which provided for the withdrawal of the Shiite movement north of the Litani River. Since then, Israel accuses Hezbollah of rebuilding its arsenal, while Beirut denounces ongoing Israeli airstrikes on its territory.
Discussions could be influenced by the U.S. midterm elections and the Israeli legislative elections scheduled for October. One of the consulted sources tempers expectations: “They are preparing it, but it is not ready yet. The idea is to link a whole set of issues in the region. It is still unknown whether all U.S. allies in the region will be ready to join.”
